The United States is the second biggest democratic nation in the world with a total population of over 330 million. In 2022 there were about 161 million eligible voters. There are 538 electoral votes that decide the elections with each state being assigned a number depending on their population.
Different demographic groups tend to vote in certain ways. Both major candidates will be doing their best to motivate and get their voting blocs to get out and vote to gain the advantage and have the best chances of winning.
Ethnicity
The majority of Americans are of white European descent, followed by Hispanic with 19%, black with 13% and Asian coming in fourth with 6% of the population.
Republicans do better with white voters, whereas all major minority groups are overwhelmingly Democrat.
Eligible Voters
The number of eligible voters is about half of the population hovering between 129 and 168 million in the past 20 years. Given immigration numbers, the number of Hispanic and Asian voters has increased over the years whereas black and white voters have decreased.
Democrats will be looking to maintain their popularity with these two voting blocs and ensure that voter turnout is strong.
Religion
A large majority of Americans identify as Christians with religiously unaffiliated people on the rise reaching 30% as of 2022. Within the Christian population, Catholics are the only ones with more registered Democrats. Evangelical Protestants are the biggest supporters of Republicans within religious groups.
Republicans tend to favour more religious conservative policies such as restricting abortion rights, anti-LGBTQ policies and promoting prayer in schools. These policies tend to be associated with evangelical protestants.
All other major religions overwhelmingly support Democrats. This possibly due to the fact that Democrats have a record of advocating for minority rights in their policies and promoting affirmative action programs.
Both parties will attempt to excite these voting bases while also reaching out to voters who might have more moderate or undecided views on these issues.
Income & Social Class
When asked, the majority of Americans consider themselves to be working class or middle class with 35% and 38% of the overall population respectively.
Lower income Americans are more affiliated to Democrats compared to higher income Americans. This can be due to the reputation of Democrats being more in favour of social programs like social security and medicare.
Age Demographics
Older people tend to vote more and have higher levels of voter registration than younger Americans. Older voters are also more likely to be registered Republicans.
This fact often favours Republicans in elections due to the reliability of this voter demographic. Nonetheless, if Democrats are able excite and get younger people motivated to go out and vote, they could be in a better position as the share of young voters has increased since Trump was first elected in 2016.
Gender & Sexual Orientation
Women and gay/bisexual Americans are more likely to identify as Democrat than Republican. Democrats have a reputation for advocating for more inclusive policies for LGBTQ people and women including being in favour of gay marriage and access to legal abortions.
The fact that the Democrats have a woman as their nominee might also increase their popularity with this group even more than it already is.
Electoral College
The election will be decided by a handful of swing states. Swing states can vary from election to election. This year, there are seven swing states that have been identified. They include Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Wisconsin.
In 2020, Biden won all seven of these states. Six out of the seven states also have more registered Democrats than Republicans with Georgia having an equal amount. Both of these facts can serve as possible indications as to the future results of the election.
Expert Analysis of How These Voting Blocs Will Affect the Election
"Biden won more votes in 2020 than anybody ever had, and he beat Trump by 7 million votes. He got many people to turn out because so many people hated Trump, and he was able to put together the groups of voters that Obama had," said Mat Lebo, a political science professor at Western University who specializes in American politics.
"This time around, he was going to lose quite a few of those voters. Specifically, young people, people of colour, and women. Harris should be in much better shape with those groups of voters. Whether they respond to her and the Democratic message, or whether their just sort of fed up with politics and stay at home is what I think will decide this election."
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