American elections are always hard to predict given the fact that there are only two major parties with similar levels of partisanship and electoral success. Recent polling data has put Kamala Harris and Donald Trump virtually tied within the margin of error.
Polling Averages
Harris is ahead by 0.5 percentage points in the latest Real Clear Politics polling aggregator which averages polling data from thirteen different reliable polls. Trump, however, is ahead in most swing states
"Some of the things that the polls are pretty reliable on is that you're not going to see many polls where Trump breaks 47 or 48%. Harris has a higher ceiling and if she is ale to pull all her voters together she can get to 51 or 52%," said Mathew Lebo.
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